4 GDP-Adv.
Updated: 30-Jan-20 09:19 ET
Highlights
- Real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%), which was unchanged from the third quarter.
- The GDP Price Deflator was up just 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%) after increasing 1.8% in the third quarter.
Key Factors
- PCE growth was 1.8% in Q4 and contributed 1.2 percentage points to the change in real GDP.
- Gross private domestic investment was down 6.1% in Q4. Nonresidential investment was down 1.5% and residential investment was up 5.8%. The change in private inventories subtracted 1.09 percentage points from the change in real GDP.
- Exports were up 1.4% in Q4 while imports were down 8.7%. Net exports contributed 1.48 percentage points to the change in real GDP.
- Government spending was up 2.7% in Q4 and added 0.47 percentage points to the change in real GDP.
Big Picture
- Personal consumption expenditure growth was a bit disappointing at 1.8% for the fourth quarter, yet the key takeaway from the report was that real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in inventories, was up a solid 3.2% — the highest growth rate since Q2 2018 and above the prior 10-quarter average of 2.5%.
- All in all, the Advance Q4 GDP estimate painted a picture of an economy running at a moderate growth pace with subdued inflation.
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| GDP | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Inventories (change) | $6.5B | $69.4B | $69.4B | $116.0B | $93.0B |
| Final Sales | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| PCE | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | -1.5% | -2.3% | -1.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Structures | -10.1% | -9.9% | -11.1% | 4.0% | -9.0% |
| Equipment | -2.9% | -3.8% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 7.4% |
| Intellectual Property | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| Residential Inv. | 5.8% | 4.6% | -3.0% | -1.0% | -4.7% |
| Net Exports | -$902.0B | -$990.1B | -$980.7B | -$944.0B | -$983.0B |
| Export | 1.4% | 0.9% | -5.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Imports | -8.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% | -1.5% | 3.5% |
| Government | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | -0.4% |
| GDP Price Index | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% |